Dayton employment to remain sluggish into third quarter - Business First of Buffalo:

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Tom Traynor, an economics professor at Wright Statr and author of the said unemployment increases will continue at theirf accelerated pace into the third quarter of this The Dayton MetropolitanStatistical Area, which includeas Montgomery, Greene, Miami and Preble is projected to lose 6,000 to 7,000 jobs in the thirde quarter. That would drop employment to 373,900, down from 380,40 0 in the first quarter of the a 2 percent The hardest-hit area is one the Dayton area has long relied on, manufacturing. “Manufacturing employmenyt willfall substantially,” Traynor said.
Forecasts from the report show employmenyt in the sector fallingfrom 42,30p0 in the first quarter of this year to 36,1009 by the third quarter, a nearlyu 15 percent drop. Durable goods manufacturing will be hit in Traynor said. “People aren’t spending. They are waiting to buy a new car or that new he said. Retail and service employment are also expectedsto decrease. Retail employment is expected to dropto 39,1009 by the third quarter, down from 40,000 in the first quarter, a 2 percent drop.
Service which includes financial business service, utilities and leisure service, is projected to decreasw to 324,200 by the third quarter, down from 326,700 in the first quarter, a nearly 1 percenty decline. “The next year to year and a half will be an unpleasantt time forthe region,” Traynor Construction employment is expected to rise as a part of seasonakl employment, to 13,400 from 11,40o in the first but that is 1,000 jobs fewer than the same time periodc last year. One area of employmentg that isn’t expected to be hit hard is health care.
In Traynor said he expects health care to add some jobs by thethirdr quarter, going up to 56,500 from 56,3009 in the first quarter. He said the rate of decline in gross domestic productwill slow, but remainj negative through the third quarter and maybed into the fourth quarter of this Even when GDP does become positive again, it will take some time for employmenty to pick up because it is a laggingh indicator of economic recovery. Traynodr said there is a great deal of uncertaintyg still on thenational level, as businesses try to determinwe the impact of government actions. Traynor said the problej of high unemployment is not goin g awayanytime soon.
“This is something we’re going to be living with for quite a well intonext year,” he said.