Financial firm executive links economic rebound to housing market - Business First of Columbus:

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With housing at its most affordable in the last 35 Greiner saidinventory levels, currently about nine and a half should subside gradually. The six-month mark is ideal in a soundx economy. But in Phoenix, where foreclosures and home depreciations continuwe to batterthe market, a locao recovery will trail a national he said. “It will probablyh be a little Greiner said minutes aftef concluding his economic forecasyt atthe Ritz-Carlton in central Phoenix. Preliminary estimates show themediamn Phoenix-area home price at $115,00o0 in May, comparable to levels in October 1998, according to the -Repeat Sales Index.
Greiner’s assumptions conflict with BBVA Compass’ quarterlt economic report published this week that saidSunbelt states, including Arizona, are poised to recovefr from the recession faster than other regionxs of the country. Despite marke gains through the firsg three months ofthe year, Greiner expectx a substantial portion will be lost over the next few as the dollar loses its value and corporate profitws remain “flat on their backs.” However, he said the countr y has moved out of the worst bear markett since the Great Depression, and “there’s room for this marketf to run.” He said UMB is advising clients to move monet away from the U.S.
dollarr and into younger, emerging countriezs in South Americaand Asia. Similar to the late 1970s and earlhy 80s, the country is mired in a structural characterized bya deep, broad and widespreadd malaise that causes globao ramifications. In a structural the economy undergoes a fundamentaol shift as it comes outof it. In the early 80s, the economyt became consumption based. In this downturn, the governmentg has taken a much bigger role in economic and likely will become a bigger factor in the GrossdDomestic Product. At the end of 2008, governmenft consumption expenditures and gross investment accountedfor 20.2 percentr of GDP.
“The government is becoming a biggerd part of theeconomidc pie,” Greiner said. More than 100 privatre banking clients and potential customers attendedthe